Where is the Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat Van Gogh Promo Card Now?

Pikachu With Grey Felt Hat
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28th September, 2023. That’s a date every Pokemon fan won’t forget soon. Nor will any of the Amsterdam locals unsuspectingly taking a day trip to the Van Gogh museum. 

It was on this day that the Pokémon x Van Gogh Pikachu promo card released. Someone in Pokemon’s marketing department had the fantastic idea that working with Amsterdam’s art museum to provide an exhibit of Vincent Van Gogh inspired pokemon artwork would be the collaboration of the year. And it was, though probably not for the reasons they hoped.

To round off the collaboration, Pokémon Company released a Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat promotional card, which was given to all attendees of the museum. And that’s where everything went from a kid’s anime to a Black Friday massacre. People are crazy, real damn crazy. The promo card caused such a frenzy that there were queues around the block, fights breaking out, and people traveling across the planet to get their hands on it.

The rationalization most gave for these scenes was that this card could end up in a similar state to the beloved Japanese Munch: A Retrospective Scream Pikachu promo, which is currently valued north of $2,000. However, the flipside of this was that the Pokémon Company also announced they would release additional copies as a free bonus when buying Pokemon TCG items from the online Pokémon Center. This lead others to believe this card was going to be printed into oblivion and similarly to the Special Delivery Charizard promo card, which sits closer to $50 in value.

Ultimately, the result of the Van Gogh promo card was somewhere in the middle once the Wingulls stopped squawking. Amsterdam’s Van Gogh museum became inundated and The Pokémon Company ultimately pulled the promo card, instead making it only available on the Pokémon Center website as a free bonus for purchases. However, the fears of mass production disappeared when the promo card sold out immediately. I guess these were the leftover stock, rather than additional waves.

Where’s the Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat Promo Card now?

The Grey Felt Hat promo card could have gone either way, to the top like the Screamachu or onto the heap like many a mass produced promo before it. We still don’t know for certain because this little sparkbundle is still young. However, we can use the sales data available to dig in and find out what trajectory Vincent Van Gogh’s promo card is hurtling along.

According to Gemrate, PSA has graded 14,856 copies of this card, with 7,493 of them being PSA 10s. That’s a gem rate of 50.4%. 

For perspective, the Grey Felt Hat Pikachu is the 8th most graded English promo card. Directly ahead is the UPC Charizard promo SWSH260 with a population of 17,915 and 4,836 PSA 10s. Special Delivery Charizard has a population of 18,020 with only 3,346 PSA 10s.

The current prices of these are cards are:

Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat Price:

  • Raw: $132
  • PSA 10: $366 

UPC Charizard Price:

  • Raw: $8
  • PSA 10: $57

Special Delivery Charizard Price:

  • Raw: $40
  • PSA 10: $203

The population of the Scream Pikachu promo card many hoped this card would become is only 4,557 with 2,664 PSA 10s. The population of the Scream promo card is a quarter that of the Grey Felt Hat and that’s not accounting for this card existing for 5 years, whereas the Van Giogh promo card is only 3 months old The Grey Felt Hat is likely to continue increasing in population moving forward.

The following chart provided by Market Movers shows the price of the 4 promos mentioned above over the past year.

How High Will The Pikachu with Grey Felt Hat Price Go

Looking at the data, it’s evident that this promo isn’t comparable to the Scream Pikachu. Alone, that the Scream card is 4x rarer from a population perspective makes it much more exclusive.

Regarding the other two promos, these are far similar in comparison. However, with the increasing graded population of the Grey Felt Hat already approaching that of these other two aged cards, I would expect a further downward trend in the price over the longer term.

For me, the only opposition to this downward trend against the other promos is if this card maintains a higher level of popularity and demand than the others. Personally, I believe this promo has more eye appeal than the others two, especially the Special Delivery.

Currently, it’s certainly true that demand is higher for this card and is why I believe the price is sitting above the other two, though over time, this could lessen as the newness of the card fades. For me, this card is a more impressive promo than the Special Delivery Charizard and for that reason, assuming the populations are similar, I would expect it to settle slightly above it from a price perspective. If the population keeps climbing though, that would certainly not be the case.

Interestingly, as seen from these promo cards, once each of them finds their floor, they rarely see much movement in the longer term except for a very slight incline. This shows them to be a stable store of value with steady returns in a bearish market, which I would presume would be even better in a bullish market.

If you have this promo, you are likely to face a continued downward trend until the market determines a floor, possibly lower than expected if there’s a significant increase in population. However, once that floor is determined, I believe this card has a strong future as a steady card, which moves in line with the market’s macro movements.

If you haven’t got a copy, yet want one, I would hold off and watch the population reports with the plan to jump in when they have slowed down.

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