Best Patrick Mahomes Rookie Card Guide 2023

Best Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards
Table of Contents

In the mind of many, including mine, Patrick Mahomes II is one of the best talents to enter the league in recent years. The way he extends plays and turns the equivalent of over date sour lemons into beautiful lemonade is a marvel. The man is literally horizontal for some of his throws.

It wouldn’t surprise me if college QBs were engaging in some baseball on the side to bring a touch of that Mahomes magic to their game.

However, as he enters his 7th year in the league, Mahomes has already established himself as an elite player. He’s a 2 time Super Bowl champion and a 3 time contender. I doubt that Patrick Mahomes will slow down, but what more can he achieve? 

For certain, there are more rings up for grabs, more MVPs, more Pro Bowls, and a bunch of records to be broken over the rest of his career, but there’s not too many unexpected achievements he can claim that would move his market significantly. The expectations are at the ceiling.

This is both good and bad, though. He’s beginning to settle into a future GOAT role, with a steady market that could fit nicely into most collections. 

Reasons To Buy

  • Patrick consistently delivers results.
  • Pat knows how to win big games and has proven it on the biggest stage.
  • Mahomes is rapidly approaching a couple notable early career records.

Concerns

  • Expectations are high for Mahomes, but there’s always the horrible risk of injury.
  • Can Patrick maintain this level of excellence and keep improving, or will he regress as he ages?
  • Mahomes’ cards are priced high, reducing the potential upside.

Patrick Mahomes Stats For 2022

In the 2022 Regular Season, Patrick Mahomes passed for 308.8 yards per game with a 67.1% completion percentage.

Out of 61 Quarterbacks, ESPN ranked Patrick Mahomes 1st by QBR and 1st by Passer Rating. 

According to Pro-Football-Reference, Patrick Mahomes’ 2022 Fantasy Rank as a QB was 1 out of 84.

Patrick Mahomes Social Metrics

While social metrics have little to do with a player’s on-field performance, they are an indicator as to the popularity of a player within the wider world. As you would expect, cards for popular players often have increased demand versus less marketed players.

Patrick Mahomes Instagram – @patrickmahomes: 6M Followers

KC Chiefs Instagram – @chiefs: 3.2M Followers

Top Patrick Mahomes Plays and Highlights 2022

Best Patrick Mahomes Plays

Patrick Mahomes Odds

  • NFL MVP: +850 – 8.5/1 – Implied Probability: 10.5%
  • NFL Player/Rookie of the Year: +10000 – 100/1 – Implied Probability: 1%
  • Winning the NFL Super Bowl: +650 – 6.5/1 – Implied Probability: 13.3%
  • Making the NFL Playoff: -20000 – 0.01/1 – Implied Probability: 99%

Updated: December 2023

The Best Patrick Mahomes Cards

The term “best” is subjective. What’s best for me may not be best for you. Instead, I prefer to use data and trends to map out the landscape. Rather than just tell you the cards I think are best for me, this allows you to see what I see and determine the best plays for you.

How Many Patrick Mahomes Cards Are There?

According to Trading Card Database, Patrick Mahomes has 12,541 cards, of which 1,754 are rookie cards from 2017.

When is the best time to buy Patrick Mahomes Cards?

As with any player, you want to buy cards when supply is plentiful and potential demand is foreseeable.

Let’s break that down further.

For supply to be plentiful, the player needs to be flying under the radar. You’re looking for times when people are not thinking about them; for example: it’s out of season for the sport, or because the player is underperforming against expectations, or they’re injured, or they’re currently on the bench, or any other reason that would detract from the player being hyped up.

The second part of the equation is buying a player whose future demand has the potential to increase significantly, which would form your planned sell window. Good examples of potential demand spikes are players performing above expectations, winning notable awards, making deep playoff runs, moving from the bench to a starting position, being drafted or called up, being traded, or any other reason that would make people look at and get excited for a player.

The best time to buy Patrick Mahomes was before he won multiple MVPs, broke records and won 2 Super Bowl Rings. However, that’s the beauty of hindsight. We all would have loved to have foreseen that move!

As we move into the 2023 season, Mahomes is settling into his veteran status with projections to be one of the greatest QBs of all time. 

When to buy in depends on how you think he’s going to perform going into the start of the season. On a macro level, we know that the best time to buy football cards is typically in the off-season or during the mid-season lull towards the end of the year. 

With a player like Mahomes, I’m not expecting his market to swing too much outside of injuries or anything effecting his career. Therefore, I would be patient and look to pick up high rarity and staple cards at a low price point, either in the off-season or during a slump in his performance.

Patrick Mahomes Card Market Overview

To gauge the overall performance of a player’s card market, I use two indicators as an index. The first is the strength of the player’s Silver Prizm. As this is a staple card for every player, it gives a reliable indication of the health of the player’s market.

The second factor I look at is the highest sale price of the player’s True Rookie Patch Auto, as again, almost every player has one of these, which allows it to act as a top-end marker for the market.

Patrick Mahomes Silver Prizm Overview

Prizm is undoubtedly one of the most popular sets for sports card investors and the Silver parallel is often one of the most transacted versions of the cards. This level of demand and transaction volume provides a firm foundation for assessing the player’s market, which typically guides the player’s other cards from a macro perspective.

Patrick Mahomes National Treasures True RPA Value

The National Treasures True RPA is a stunning NFL card for any player. A numbered rookie out of 99, the true rookie patch auto card comes in a horizontal orientation, sports a team jersey color-match scheme and is adorned with a foiled RC stamp. The card includes an on-card autograph and large jersey patch, where more colors typically equate to a higher value. 

Best Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards – Raw (Rookie Year 2022)

This section will look at the data surrounding the player’s raw card market to help you understand which cards could be right for you.

We’ll examine the best Patrick Mahomes rookie cards based on:

  • Most Graded in terms of submission quantity
  • Most Liquid in terms of sales volume
  • Highest Value with moderate sales volume
  • Most Expensive with any sales history

Most Graded Raw Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards

According to Gemrate, the following cards are the most graded:

YearSetCard #NameParallelGemsTotalGem Rate
2017Panini Donruss327Patrick Mahomes IIBase1,51510,65314%
2017Panini Donruss Optic177Patrick Mahomes IIBase4,2088,29651%
2017Panini Prizm269Patrick Mahomes IIPrizm9355,14618%
2018Panini Prizm102Patrick Mahomes IIBase1,4854,72231%
2017Panini Score403Patrick Mahomes IIBase2,4894,69153%

Most Liquid Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards – Raw

The number of cards printed nowadays is overwhelming and most of them are binder fillers. Make sure you understand this because it is paramount. For investors specifically, a card’s liquidity is extremely important to allow moving in and out of investments at will.

The last thing you want to do is make a perfect prediction on a player’s future, invest in a vast number of their cards, only to find out when you go to sell them, that the cards you purchased are not the ones people chase and collect.

We’ve all done it before, but hopefully, this section will help you avoid this pitfall.

According to Market Movers, which references eBay and other auction house data, the most liquid Patrick Mahomes cards in terms of sales volume over a 12-month period are: 

2017 Panini Donruss #327 Rated Rookie

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Donruss #327 Rated Rookie:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Press Proof Gold /50
  • Most sales volume: Press Proof Blue
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Press Proof Blue

2017 Panini Score #403 Base Rookie

The 2017 Panini Score #403 Base Rookie has no parallels with raw sales recorded yet.

2017 Panini Prestige Base Rookie Card

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Prestige Base Rookie Card:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Xtra Points Red
  • Most sales volume: Blue Chip Prospects
  • Highest monetary sales volume: NFL Passport

2017 Panini Donruss Optic #177 Rated Rookie

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Donruss Optic #177 Rated Rookie:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Rated Rookie Autograph Red /50
  • Most sales volume: Red & Yellow
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Red & Yellow

Highest Value Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards – Raw

At the highest end, Patrick Mahomes has some incredible cards, which have sold for enormous amounts. Pulling one of these is akin to a lottery ticket. However, as these cards are unobtainable for most investors, I will not focus on those in this section. Instead, this section will focus on cards that have at least 50 sales over the past 12 months. This makes them high end, yet still liquid.

According to Market Movers, the highest value Patrick Mahomes cards with over 50 sales in a 12-month period are:

2017 Panini Prizm Rookie Silver #269 

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Prizm Rookie Silver #269 :

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Camo /25
  • Most sales volume: Red White Blue
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Blue Wave /149

2017 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #177 Red & Yellow

Parallel statistics for the 2017 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #177 are similar to the above.

2017 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #177 Base

Parallel statistics for the 2017 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #177 are similar to the above.

2017 Panini Prizm Instant Impact

The 2017 Panini Prizm Instant Impact has no parallels with raw sales recorded yet.

Most Expensive Patrick Mahomes Football Cards – Raw

Below are the four most expensive cards sold in the last 12 months, according to Market Movers. 

The Top Patrick Mahomes Rookie Card For Me – Raw

Mahomes’s raw card market looks as I would expect for a top veteran quarterback, except the obvious standout being the lack of a base Prizm RC, which is replaced by 2017 Score. The reason for this is that in 2017, Panini opted to forego the base version of this card, making the Silver Prizm rookie cards the equivalent of the base in a sense, except rarer, of course. Without the base Prizm, the Rated Rookie has taken the most liquid spot.

I would believe that the vast majority of Mahomes’ pristine raw rookie cards would have found their way to a grading company by now, so if I was looking to invest into something raw, it would likely be one of his non-rookie cards, which we’ll discuss later in this post. 

Best Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards – Graded PSA 10

Raw cards have the upside of being gradable, which is a play a lot of investors are interested in making. Finding raw gems and grading them can add a tremendous level of profit to a play. However, with that upside comes additional risk, as cards that grade below a 10 rarely command a profit.

For many investors, grading cards is a risk they are not willing to take. For them, their preference is to purchase slabs and make plays based on the value of the card without having to account for the grading variable.

Personally, I like to make grading plays for newer cards, though for older rookies, I generally stick to graded slabs as finding a perfect raw copy gets exceedingly more difficult as time goes by.

PSA, Beckett, SGC and CGC are the most reputable grading companies and are the only ones trusted by most investors. Smaller grading companies with different specialities are appearing, though they have yet to make a significant impact. For now, the PSA 10 is by far the most desired grade for a card, except for the incredibly rare BGS Black Label.

The debate over the best grading company is highly contentious, but while PSA commands the largest premium, investors will be most interested in PSA 10 slabs. 

Most Liquid Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards – PSA 10

According to Market Movers, which references eBay and other auction house data, the most liquid PSA 10 Patrick Mahomes cards in terms of sales volume over a 12-month period are: 

2017 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #177 

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Optic Rated Rookie #177:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Rated Rookie Autograph – Holo /99
  • Most sales volume: Red & Yellow
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Red & Yellow

2017 Panini Donruss #327 Base Card

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Donruss #327 Base Card:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Press Proof Silver Die-Cut /75
  • Most sales volume: Press Proof Green
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Press Proof Green

2017 Panini Rookies & Stars

The 2017 Panini Rookies & Stars has no parallels with PSA 10 sales recorded yet.

2017 Panini #104

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini #104:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Chainmail Armor
  • Most sales volume: Knight’s Templar
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Chainmail Armor

Highest Value Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards – PSA 10

To account for the lower population of PSA 10 cards compared to raw cards, I have reduced the criteria for this section to 20 sales from 50.

According to Market Movers, the highest value PSA 10 Patrick Mahomes cards with over 20 sales in a 12-month period are:

2017 Panini Select Patrick Mahomes #247 Field Level Silver

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Select Patrick Mahomes #247 Field Level Silver:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Field Level Copper /75
  • Most sales volume: Field Level Silver
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Field Level Silver

2017 Panini Prizm Silver #269

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Prizm Silver #269:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Gold /10
  • Most sales volume: Choice Fusion Red & Yellow
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Choice Fusion Red & Yellow

2017 Select #103 Premier Level Silver

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Select Patrick Mahomes II #103 Premier Level Silver:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Premier Level Tri-Color /149
  • Most sales volume: Premiere Level Silver
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Premiere Level Silver

2017 Panini Donruss Rated Rookie Optic #177 Holo

The following is a breakdown of the parallels for the 2017 Panini Donruss Rated Rookie Optic #177 Holo:

  • Most expensive (with sales history): Rated Rookie Autographs – Holo /99
  • Most sales volume: Red & Yellow
  • Highest monetary sales volume: Red & Yellow

Most Expensive Patrick Mahomes Football Cards – PSA 10

Below are the four most expensive PSA 10 cards sold in the last 12 months, according to Market Movers. 

Top Patrick Mahomes Cards

My Thoughts On The Top Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards – PSA 10

The Rated Rookies being the most liquid, the Silver Prizm leading the highest value, and the National Treasures Rookie Patch Auto /99 leading the most expensive all look as I would expect. In my mind, these are the best Mahomes rookie cards to invest in, if you can find them at the right price.

The Contenders Rookie Auto and the Prizm Gold Auto /10 make sense too, but I am surprised to see the White Sparkle so high up the most expensive list. It’s a great card, but I wouldn’t have placed it top 4. I would have suspected one of the 2017 Panini Flawless Patrick Mahomes rookie cards to have taken that spot.

Best Patrick Mahomes Non-Rookie Cards 

For many NFL sports card investors, all that matters are the RCs and this is typically what I stick to as well. NFL rookie cards are often the most popular cards for a player and act as a baseline for collectors and investors in the ever-expanding world of cards. However, for some investors, the price of a Patrick Mahomes RC may not be workable.

Personally, if I’m going to invest in a non-rookie card for a player, I look for either, the first card where they are in a new team’s jersey after a transfer, or I lean towards popular inserts like the Kaboom!, Color Blast, Stained Glass or some of the newer released inserts. Other options include the rarer SSPs like Genesis or Sparkles.

The following is a list of the top four non-rookie cards in terms of monetary sales volume within the last 12-months according to Market Movers.

Best Patrick Mahomes Non-Rookie Cards

The Top 10 Patrick Mahomes Rookie Cards

The following list is a breakdown of the top 10 Patrick Mahomes rookie cards and non-rookie cards, in terms of monetary sales volume within the last 12-months.

  1. 2017 National Treasures #161 Rookie Patch Auto /99
  2. 2017 Optic #177 Base
  3. 2017 Prizm #269 Silver
  4. 2017 Prizm #269 Gold Vinyl /5
  5. 2017 Contenders #303 Rookie Ticket Auto – Super Bowl /1
  6. 2017 Prizm #RA-PM Rookie Autographs – Black Finite /1
  7. 2017 Donruss #327 Base
  8. 2017 Optic #177 Red & Yellow
  9. 2017 Optic #177 Holo
  10. 2017 National Treasures #161 Rookie Patch Auto – Holo Gold /10

Honorable Mentions

The data shows that the above listed cards are the best in the eyes of investors. However, for Patrick Mahomes collectors, there are a few other dazzling cards worth looking at. 

The 2021 Optic #MH-12 My House! is a fiery card with explosive energy from the chromium Optic product. This is one of the lower end cards on this list, but typically has high volume for most players.

The 2020 Panini Prizm Patrick Mahomes gets a mention here because it includes so much that the 2017 version didn’t. A base rookie, more parallels and the Gold Vinyl everyone wants. There’s also an array of numbered parallels of this card.

The 2017 National Treasures NFL Shield Mahomes Rookie is one of the best rookie patch autographs you can get. It’s a shield, it’s 1/1, every Pat Mahomes fan would love to own this card.

The 2017 Panini Prizm Stained Glass is one of my favorite parallels. It’s creative, different and always commands attention without screaming for it. The fact that this is a RC for Pat as well makes it perfect.

The 2017 Crown Royale may not be in any of the top 10 Patrick Mahomes rookie cards lists, but it’s certainly a popular card. It slips through the cracks but has a high monetary trading volume for a base card. 

Frequently Asked Questions

How much are the Patrick Mahomes rookie cards worth?

Patrick Mahomes cards are available on a spectrum of price points, though rookie cards are still attainable. Base cards typically go for under $50, a Donruss Rated Rookie goes for around $200 and some cards have reached sales of over $300,000. 

What is Patrick Mahomes’ true rookie card?

Determining a True Rookie Card is always a topic of spirited debate, though these data points may help. According to TCDB, the first RC was the 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie #327. Furthermore, the rookie card with the highest sales volume is the same card.

What is the rarest Patrick Mahomes card?

The rarest and most expensive Patrick Mahomes rookie cards will be his one of ones. Some of these high-end cards include the 2017 Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto – Super Bowl /1 and the 2017 Panini Prizm Patrick Mahomes Rookie Autographs – Black Finite /1.

Does Patrick Mahomes have a downtown card?

One of the most popular Patrick Mahomes non-rookie cards is his Downtown. The card features Mahomes in his Chiefs jersey accompanied by a loyal wolf. The card also comes in a Black Pandora parallel out of 25.

How many Patrick Mahomes rookie cards are there?

Patrick Mahomes has 1,754 rookie cards on the market, which is pretty low nowadays considering Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

What packs are Patrick Mahomes rookie cards in?

Patrick Mahomes has rookie cards in many card sets, including: 2017 Panini Prizm, 2017 Panini Select Football, 2017 Panini Phoenix, 2017 Prestige, 2017 Donruss and 2017 Optic. The Rated Rookie in the Donruss set is heralded as the first Patrick Mahomes rookie card.

What is the best Patrick Mahomes rookie card?

From an extremely general perspective, many people believe the best place to start is with the 2017 Prizm Silver or the 2017 Panini National Treasures Patrick Mahomes Rookie Patch Auto, depending on your price point. If you’re looking for a Patrick Mahomes autograph, then a Panini Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto is a great place to start. However, while these cards are a sound starting point, there is a lot more to consider. It’s not a simple question to answer, though I hope the insights in this guide will help you. 

What is the most expensive Patrick Mahomes card sold?

As of this writing, the most expensive card sold is the 1/1 Panini Contenders Super Bowl Rookie Ticket Autograph of Patrick Mahomes, which sold for over $300,000. For a full list of the most expensive cards, please see the section listed.

Does Patrick Mahomes have a rookie card?

Patrick Mahomes certainly has a rookie card and in this article we break down the best cards in terms of both demand and price.